Issue Date: March 05, 2010
Corn - Part VI
As of my last article, in early Dec-09, my recommended sales level for the 2009 corn crop was at 75% with an average price of $4.30 basis the Mch-10 futures. At that time, I had also recommended that producers sell another 10% of your production if Mch-10 futures had reached $4.20 prior to the USDA production report in Jan-10. I had also advised producers to begin marketing of the 2010 corn crop by selling 10%, if Dec-10 futures had reached $4.40. Both of these price targets had been reached. This brought cumulative sales for the 2009 corn crop to 85% at an average price of $4.28 ¾ basis the Mch-10 futures. Since the Mch-10 corn contract is now in delivery, most of my clients have rolled these hedges forward to the May-10 contract at a spread of $.11 ½. For simplicity I'll assume that sales for the 2009 corn crop are at 85% at an average price of $4.40 basis the May-10 contract. 2010 sales remain at 10% at an average price of $4.40 basis the Dec-10 contract. At this point I think it would be a good time to reexamine the fundamental factors which are driving corn prices and to review our marketing plan going forward.
By Mark Soderberg
|
Oil Held hostage Day 353
It is almost been a year since the day the oil market was changed forever. After collapsing in a heap of deflationary despair, oil was saved by what could only be described as a historic government intervention. It was the day that the US Federal Reserve changed the world by printing more money and therefore, essentially putting a floor under the price of oil. It was the day that the Federal Reserve, after having nowhere to go on interest rates, made a move to save the banks and the economy by taking the unprecedented step to use quantitative easing in the United States to save our economy. This move of course changed the way oil moved and was valued. And to this day this government intervention and newly created Fed policy inspired the largest move in crude oil prices there has ever been even when considering geo-political events or even data on supply and demand. As we come upon the one year anniversary let’s look back and see how the global oil market was changed and what that means for our future.
By Phil Flynn
|
S&P500 Futures Higher on the Year
S&P500 futures are now higher on the year, which puts into question the old adage that "as goes January, so goes the rest of the year." For one thing, it flies in the face of our own research. In addition, the "January indicator," while often a reliable indicator when it flashes buy signals, tends to have a relatively poor record when it generates sell signals. For example, the "January indicator" last year predicted that 2009 would be a down year, when in fact, we saw one on the largest price advances in recorded history. This year we got the same bearish "January indicator," which, according to our fundamental and technical research, will prove to be another false sell signal.
By Alan Bush
|
|
|
